Previous week: 10 April 2017 – 14 April 2017
UK CPI y/y—4.30pm 11 April 2017 Tuesday
UK CPI was 2.3% for the month of March. The expectation was for an increase of CPI of +2.2%. February’s number was +2.3%.
Bank of Canada Overnight Rate + Rate Statement + Press Conference—10pm 12 April 2017 Wednesday
The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate unchanged at +0.50%, in line with expectations.
US Crude oil inventories—10.30pm 12 April 2017 Wednesday
US crude inventories dropped by -2.16 million barrels last week. US Baker Hughes rig count rose another 11 from 672 to 683 (14th straight week of increases).
US CPI m/m—8.30pm 14 April 2017 Friday
Headline CPI for the month of March was -0.3% on the expectation of 0.0%. February number was +0.1%. Core CPI for the month of March was -0.1% on the expectation of 0.2%. February number was +0.2%. Not a pretty picture for the Federal Reserve given the fact that they had just raised interest rates having been convinced that inflation was here to stay.
US Retail Sales m/m—8.30pm 14 April 2017 Friday
March’s US headline retail sales came in at -0.2% on the expectation of +0.1% increase. February’s number was downwardly revised from +0.1% to -0.3%. Core retail sales was not great too. Core retail sales came in flat at 0.0% on the expectation of an increase of +0.2%. February’s figure was revised downwards from +0.2% to 0.0%. Not a pretty picture for President Trump.
President Trump bombings and Threats to DPR Korea
President Trump dropped the Mother of all Bombs (MOAB) on Afghanistan. Speculation is rife about the timing and ordinance used. With a cost of $16m each and the sell by date due to expire this year, it is no wonder the business savvy president is taking the action he is. Some interesting coverage from The Guardian below.
Coming week: 10 April 2017 – 14 April 2017
US Crude oil inventories—10.30pm 19 April 2017 Wednesday
Will US crude oil inventories show another draw down or will last week’s draw down be just an anomaly?
S&P 500 short
S&P 500 had just broken bullish trend line support of Thursday and closed near the low of the candlestick which indicates weakness. Breaking of a support/trend line indicates a shift in fundamentals and over the last week fundamentals had indeed shifted.
- Very weak jobs report for the month of March. 98k jobs were created on the expectation of 174k jobs. January and February figures were revised downwards by a total of 38k jobs.
- Weak CPI. -0.3% headline CPI and -0.1% core CPI
- Weak retail sales. -0.2% headline retail sales and 0.0% core retail sales. Expectation was for +0.1% and +0.2% respectively. February’s retail sales figures were revised downwards. Headline from +0.1% to -0.3%, core from +0.2% to 0.0%.
- Warmongering President Trump keeping his campaign promises of keeping America safe again. He dropped a huge bomb on Afghanistan and threatened North Korea’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un. Google searches for “World War 3” hit a new high.
The 3 Branches of Government
I have recently become interested in knowing more about government and how and why it works. Here’s a good summary on the three branches of government in United States.