Daily Review – Wednesday 19-Oct-2016

Daily Review – Wednesday 19-Oct-2016

US NAHB Housing Market Index

The market for newly constructed single-family homes dropped 2 points  to 63 in October, but the outlook still remains solid and positive.

“Even with this month’s drop, builder confidence stands at its second-highest level in 2016, a sign that the housing recovery continues to make solid progress,” said NAHB Chairman Ed Brady.

 

US Core CPI MoM

The core consumer price index in the US rose only 0.1% in September after a 0.3% increase in August.

The increase in the core index was mainly driven by costs for housing and airfare, while the costs of apparel and automobiles declined.

 

US CPI MoM

In line with what analysts were expecting, the US consumer price index increased 0.3% in September.

This data, combined with the strong labour market figures, strongly suggests that the FED will announce a 0.25% rate hike for December.

 

Canadian Manufacturing Sales MoM

Manufacturing sales in Canada increased 0.9% in August, reflecting higher sales of food, primary metal, and petroleum and coal products.

Sales were up in 15 of the 21 industries, representing 69% of the total Canadian manufacturing sector.

 

UK HPI YoY

The August housing price index increased 8.4% compared to last year.

The average price of a property in the UK for August was £218,964.

 

UK Core CPI YoY

September consumer prices in the UK for goods and services, excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco rose by 1.5% compared to last year.

 

UK CPI YoY

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 1.0% in the year to September 2016.

The rate in September 2016 was the highest since November 2014, when it was also 1.0%.

The main contributors were rising prices for clothing, overnight hotel stays and motor fuels, and prices for gas.

 

UK RPI YoY

The UK retail price index increased by 2.0% compared to last year.

The RPI differs from the CPI in that it only measures the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption.

It also includes housing costs which are excluded from the CPI.

 

UK PPI Input MoM

On the purchasing side of the UK’s producer price index there was no change compared to last month.

However, looking at it in more detail, the highest increase was seen in crude oil 2.9% while the highest decrease was for imported parts and equipment -1.4%.

 

UK PPI Output MoM

The price of products sold by UK manufacturers increased by 0.2% in September. This was in line with what the market was expecting.

Highest increases were seen in the transport equipment  (2.7%), other manufactured products (2.6%),  tobacco and alcohol (2.2%) and the metal, machinery and equipment (1.9%) groups.

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks

Mario Draghi delivered a welcoming speech at the European Cultural Days hosted by the ECB.

However, no news was reported so we assume that Draghi did not slip in any hints on the ECB’s policy.

We’ll have to wait until Thursday when the ECB will have a press conference.

 

Chinese M2 Money Supply YoY

The Chinese cash, deposited and “near money” supply increased 11.5% compared to the same period last year.

 

Chinese New Loans

Chinese yuan loans increased by 1220B in September, much more than analysts were expecting.

China has been rapidly increasing new credit to help stabilise the economy and at the same time prevent the property market from collapsing.

 

Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM

New motor vehicle sales in Australia was up 2.5% in September compared to the month before.

 

New Zealand GDT Price Index

The global dairy trade price index gained 1.4% at the last auction after the previous one saw a sharp decrease of 3.0%.

 

New Zealand CPI QoQ

The New Zealand consumer price index increased slightly by 0.2% in Q3 compared to Q2.

 

Upcoming Data Releases

Wednesday will be mainly driven by the Chinese GDP and Industrial Production numbers. Also  US building permit figures will be released as well as crude oil inventories.

US Building Permits

Markets are expecting a slight rise after a decrease in September figures.

 

US Crude Oil Inventories

After the massive build up last week analysts are expecting another increase of 2.2M barrels.

 

Daily Review - Thursday 20-Oct-2016 Daily Review - Tuesday 18-Oct-2016