Daily Review – Tuesday 01-Nov-2016

Daily Review – Tuesday 01-Nov-2016

US – Core PCE Price Index m/m

The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which excludes food and energy, grew by 0.1% in September compared with August which saw a growth of 0.2%.

Over a period of 12 months the September core PCE rose 1.7%.


US – Personal Spending m/m

US personal spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of the US economy, rose 0.5% after a 0.1% decrease in August.


US – Personal Income m/m

Personal income is slightly lacking in comparison to spending and increased 0.3% in September after rising 0.2% in August.

Wages and salaries advanced 0.3% after a small 0.1% increase the prior month.


US – Chicago PMI

The Market News International (MNI) Chicago PMI fell 3.6 points to a five-month low of 50.6 in October from 54.2 in September.

This suggests that economic activity in the US lost some momentum after having picked up in Q3.

A slowdown in production and new orders were the main drivers for this downturn.


Canada – Raw Materials Price Index

The Canadian RMPI saw a -0.1% in September, after -0.7% in August, signaling that prices for raw materials are stabilizing.

The decline was led by lower prices for animals and animal products (-3.7%), specifically cattle and calves (-7.8%), and hogs (-9.1%).

Largely offsetting the decline were higher prices for crude energy products (+2.4%), led by an increase in conventional crude oil (+2.4%).


Canada – Industrial Product Price Index

Canada’s IPPI rose 0.4% in September, after falling 0.4% in August, led by higher prices for energy and petroleum products, as well as motorized and recreational vehicles.


UK – Net Lending to Individuals m/m

Total UK lending to individuals increased by 4.7B GBP in September, similar to the revised amount in August.

The three-month annualized and twelve-month growth rates were 3.7% and 4.0% respectively.


UK – M4 Money Supply m/m

After four consecutive months of expansion, September saw a decline in the broad money volume in the UK by -0.4%, compared to a 1.0% increase in August.


UK – Mortgage Approvals

The number of mortgage approvals for private home purchase was 62,932 in September, compared to 60,984 in August.

The average of the previous six months has been 64,841.


EU – German Retail Sales m/m

While analysts forecasted a 0.2% rise, German retail sales actually plummeted -1.4% in September from previous month. Compared with September last year, retail sales were up 0.4%.

This could be a sign that global economic uncertainties may have started to affect consumers in Europe’s largest economy.


EU – CPI Flash Estimate y/y

The Statistical Office of the European Union expects inflation in the Eurozone to be 0.5% in October 2016, up from 0.4% in the previous month.


EU – Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y

Looking at the core number, which excludes food and energy, the Eurozone inflation was estimated at 0.8% for October, similar to the previous 2 months.


EU – Prelim Flash GDP q/q

Seasonally adjusted GDP in the Eurozone rose 0.3% in Q3, similar to Q2 and what the market was expecting.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 1.6%.


Japan – Prelim Industrial Production m/m

The preliminary October numbers for Japan’s industrial production remained unchanged at 0.0%, following a 1.3% growth in September.

Compared to the same period a year ago, industrial production rose 0.9%.


Japan – Retail Sales y/y

According to data released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Japan’s retail sales slipped 1.9% from a year before.

This is the seventh consecutive month retail sales in Japan have been declining.


Japan – Housing Starts y/y

Japanese Housing Starts rose to a seasonally adjusted 10.0% in September year-on-year, from 2.5% in the month before.

This was the third consecutive increase and bigger than the 5.3% expected expansion.


Australia – MI Inflation Gauge m/m

The Melbourne Institute consumer inflation gauge ­­­­rose 0.2% in October and was up 1.5% from a year ago.
In September, the inflation index rose 0.4% month-over-month and 1.3% annually.

New Zealand – ANZ Business Confidence

Business confidence in New Zealand dropped to 24.5 in September after reporting 27.9 in August. However, September reading was still the second highest of the year.

New Zealand’s economy remains in good condition, especially compared to other developed markets.


Upcoming Data Releases

It’s the first day of the month again and therefore Tuesday 01 November will have many high impact data releases. Stay tuned for the manufacturing PMI releases of the US, UK, Japan and China.

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