Daily Review – Thursday 13-Oct-2016

Daily Review – Thursday 13-Oct-2016

US JOLTS Job Openings

The number of job openings in the US came in lower than expected on the last business day of August.

Analysts were expecting a slight decrease (5.79M) compared to July (5.87M), however, actual numbers came in significantly lower at 5.44M.

us-jolts-jobs

 

FOMC Members Dudley and George Speak

New York FED member Dudley was the first to speak yesterday, but didn’t tell us anything new. He stated that the FED take the world as it is, indicating that any rate hike has been delayed until after the elections in November.

Kansas City FED member George did an even better job by not talking about monetary policy at all during her speech.

As expected this non-news lead to virtually no price actions.

fomc-members-speak

 

MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks

Bank of England MPC member Cunliffe appreared at the enquiry by the upper House of Lords into the effects of Brexit on financial services.

He stated that the underlying trend for the pound is still down. The November forecast for the pound will reflect this trend.

Contrary to Cunliffe’s statements Cable gained a bit in strength.

mpc-cunliffe-speaks

 

European Area Industrial Production MoM

After a decline of 1.1% in July the European industrial production increased again by 1.6% in August.

Compared to August’15 industrial production grew by 1.8%

The highest increases in industrial production were registered in the Czech Republic (+12.1%), the Netherlands (+4.4%) and Germany (+3.1%), and the largest decreases in Ireland (-13.4%), Finland (-3.5%) and Sweden (-2.9%).

ea-industrial-pro

 

German WPI MoM

The German wholesale prices index rose by 0.4% in September compared to previous month indicating that consumer prices are less likely to increase in the short term.

September wholesale prices decreased 0.3% compared to the same period last year.  In August and in July 2016 the annual rates of change were –1.2% and -1.4%, respectively.

de-wpi-mom

 

French Final CPI MoM

No change in the final CPI number for France. The preliminary number came in at 0.2% and final corrected number was the same.

fra-final-cpi

 

Japanese Core Machinery Orders MoM

Core machinery orders for Japanese manufacturers came in better than expected. Where analysts were expecting a drop of 4.4%, the actual figure was -2.2%.

Machinery orders are a leading indicator of production as rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders.

jpy-core-machinery-orders

 

Japanese Preliminary Machine Tool Orders YoY

In conjunction with the data above, Japan’s preliminary machine tool orders eased by 6.3% on a YoY basis in September, following a drop of 8.4% in the prior month.

jpy-prelim-machine-tool-orders

 

Japanese 30-Y Bond Auction

Japanese 30 year bonds have increased in popularity as last auction resulted in a higher average yield, now at 0.51%, and an increase in the bid-to-cover ratio from 3.1 to 3.6.

jpy-30-y-bond-auction

 

Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment

The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose by 1.1% in October from 101.4 in September to 102.4 in October.

Over the last six months the Index has held within a relatively tight 4% range with five of the six readings hovering just above 100.

aud-westpac-consumer

 

Upcoming Data Releases..

Big news coming up for Thursday 13 October. We start with the FOMC meeting minutes being released which provides us with in-depth insights as to why they didn’t hike up the interest rate last September. China will be releasing its trade balance figures which will tell us whether their exports are still strong or not. Finally the usual weekly US unemployment claims and crude oil inventories will be released.

US Crude Oil Inventories

After five consecutive weeks of draw-downs in oil reserves, has the US finally replenished their inventories? We will see tomorrow.

us-crude-oil

 

US Unemployment Claims

Despite the steady decline in unemployment claims since August’16 , numbers have not been convincing enough for the FED to increase interest rates. Maybe tomorrow figure will tell us more about what’s in store for next month and December.

us-unemployment-claims

 

Time Data Title Currency Previous Forecast
6:01 UK RICS House Price Balance GBP 12.0% 14.0%
19:30 Canadian NHPI MoM CAD 0.4% 0.3%
US Import Prices MoM USD -0.2% 0.1%
21:30 US Natural Gas Storage USD 80B 84B
Tentative Chinese Trade Balance CNY 346B 365B
Daily Review - Friday 14-Oct-2016 Daily Review - Wednesday 12-Oct-2016