Daily Review – Friday 21-Oct-2016

Daily Review – Friday 21-Oct-2016

US – Philly FED Manufacturing Index

Business conditions for manufacturers in the Philadelphia FED district declined, from a reading of 12.8 in September to 9.7 this month. However, any reading above 0 indicates improvement, therefore conditions continue to improve.

General business activity, new orders, and shipments were all positive this month. But firms reported continued weakness in overall labor market conditions.


US – Unemployment Claims

The number of Amricans seeking first-time unemployment claims rose by 13K to 260K over the last week.

In the aftermath of hurricane Matthew, many businesses at least temporarily closed, making workers there potentially eligible to claim unemployment benefits last week.

Storm-related claims may be made over the course of the next several weeks.


US – Existing Home Sales

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, town-homes, condominiums and co-ops, hiked 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.47M in September from a downward revised 5.30M in August.

US – CB Leading Index M/M

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2% in September to 124.4 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2% decline in August.


US – Natural Gas Storage

Supplies of natural gas rose 77B cubic feet, slightly above the 72B rise expected by analysts.

Total stocks now stand at 3.836T cubic feet, up 46B cubic feet from a year ago and 185B cubic feet above the five-year average.


Canada – BOC Govenor Poloz Speaks

Govenor Stephen Poloz said that the BOC was close to lowering its interest rate to add more stimulus to the Canadian economy, but held it at 0.5% last Wednesday due to the large number of unknowns including global political uncertainty.

The Canadian dollar fell on the comments, after strengthening by as much as 0.8% following the rate decision.


UK – Retail Sales M/M

Retail sales stagnated for a second month in September as increasing prices and warm weather hit demand for clothing.

Clothing and footwear sales dropped 2.8% after prices surged 5.2%, the most in six years.


UK – MPC Member Haldane Speaks

Chief Economist Andy Haldane defended the BOE’s decision to extend its QE program, saying it most definitely boosted money spending relative to what it would have been.

His comments follow weeks of criticism of the BOE’s use of asset purchases and ultra-low interest rates, including Prime Minister Theresa May saying the stimulus has had “bad side effects.”

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EU – ECB Press Conference

“An abrupt ending to bond purchases, I think, is unlikely,” the ECB president Maria Draghi said in a press conference in Frankfurt. A sudden stop “is not present in anybody’s mind.”

The comments keep the ECB on track for a potential extension of its bond-buying program, as predicted by economists.

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EU – Minimum Bid Rate

The ECB kept its interest rates unchanged at 0.0% in line with what everyone expected.


EU – German PPI M/M

Germany’s producer price index dropped 0.2% in September compared to August. Compared to the same period last year this was a decrease of 1.4%.


EU – Current Account

The euro area’s current account recorded a trade surplus of €29.7 billion in August 2016.



Australia – Employment Change

The seasonally adjusted number of persons employed decreased by 9,8K in September 2016. Analysts were expecting an increase of 15.2K after August also showed a decrease of 8.6K.


Australia – Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September 2016 decreased by 0.1% points to 5.6%.


Australia – NAB Quarterly Business Confidence

The business confidence index gained 2 points in Q3 and is now at +5.

Australian businesses have a solid outlook in the near-term, despite uncertainties looming that could impact global activities.


Upcoming Data Releases

Friday will mostly evolve around the Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda speaking at the Japan Summit hosted by The Economist in Tokyo. Other news to look out for are the Canadian consumer and retail numbers for September.

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