Daily Review – Friday 18-Nov-2016

Daily Review – Friday 18-Nov-2016

US – Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Thursday said an interest-rate hike could come “relatively soon.”

“At our meeting earlier this month, the FOMC judged that the case for an increase in the target range had continued to strengthen and that such an increase could well become appropriate relatively soon if incoming data provide some further evidence of continued progress toward the Committee’s objectives,” Yellen said, speaking before the Joint Economic Committee.

 

US – Unemployment Claims

Jobless claims dropped by 19K to 235K in the week ended November 12, from 254K the week before.

 

US – Building Permits

Building permits, a leading indicator for future construction, rose 0.3% to 1.229M (1.23M).

 

US – Housing Starts

Housing starts rose by 25.5% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.32M, the biggest increase in nine years.

Key driver for this massive uptick were apartment projects as well as a strong pickup for single family housing.

 

US – CPI m/m

The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in October, compared to September (0.3%).

On an annualized basis the CPI rose 1.6%.

 

US – Core CPI m/m

Excluding food and energy the CPI rose 0.1%, similar to the previous month.

 

US – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

The index for current manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region decreased from 9.7 in October to 7.6 this month.

Firms are expecting continued growth for manufacturing over the next six months, although expectations are less optimistic than last month.

 

US – Natural Gas Storage

Natural gas reserves increased by 30B cubic feet in the week that end November 11. 24B Cubic feet less than what we have seen in the two weeks before that.

 

US – TIC Long-Term Purchases

The treasury international capital (TIC) data, as released by the US Department of Treasury, showed a huge gap between forecast and actual result for September.

Analysts were expecting a surplus of $32.9B, however, the actual result for September came in at a deficit of $26.2B. Meaning foreigners bought less US long-term securities than US citizens bought foreign long-term securities.

 

Canada – Foreign Securities Purchases

Foreign investment in Canadian securities amounted to $11.77B in September. New issues of bonds placed abroad by Canadian private corporations accounted for the bulk of this activity.

At the same time, Canadian investment in foreign securities was $1.8B, led by acquisitions of non-US foreign shares.

 

UK – Retail Sales m/m

October retail sales in the UK increased by 1.9% compared to the previous month.

Increases were across all store types, except department stores. The largest contribution to growth came from textiles, clothing and footwear stores.

 

EU – Final CPI y/y

The annual inflation for both the European Union (EU28) and the Euro Area (EA19) in October was 0.5%, up from 0.4% in September.

The lowest annual rates were registered in Bulgaria and Cyprus, both -1.0%. The highest annual rates were recorded in Belgium (1.9%) and Austria (1.4%).

 

EU – Final Core CPI y/y

Excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco the inflation for the Euro Area was 0.8% in October.

 

EU – Italian Trade Balance

September noted a 3.67B euro trade surplus for the Italian economy, 0.82B higher than the 2.85B that the market was expecting and 1.18B higher than August (2.49B).

Compared with last year, September 2016 saw an increase in exports of 3.1% and a decrease in imports of 2.7%.

 

Australia – Employment Change

The seasonally adjusted number of persons employed in Australia increased by 9.8K in October.  2016.

Less than the 20.3K that analysts were expecting, but still an increase after September saw a revised decrease of 29K.

 

Australia – Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Australia for October 2016 remained at 5.6%, the same level as the past two months.

 

China – Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y

FDI in China rose 4.2% year on year to reach around 98B $US in the first ten months of the year.

The service sector attracted massive investments, unlike manufacturing which suffers from over capacity.

 

Upcoming Data Releases

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