Daily Review – Friday 14-Oct-2016

Daily Review – Friday 14-Oct-2016

US Unemployment Claims

Positive news from the unemployment claims. The market was actually expecting an increase of 3000, however, the contrary happened and we saw a drop of 3000 to 246K .

 

US Crude Oil Inventories

After 5 consecutive weeks of draw-downs, the US crude oil reserves finally increased again by 4.9M barrels.

The big difference between what analysts were expecting vs. the actual number triggered massive price action as WTI crude oil moved nearly 120 pips over the course of 30 minutes when the numbers were released.

 

US Natural Gas Storage

Natural gas reserves increased slightly lower (-1B) compared to last month and came in at 79B cubic feet.

This was below what analysts were expecting (84B) as the US is preparing itself for the upcoming winter.

 

FOMC Meeting Minutes

FED members seem to have a divided view about the US labour market and there is a growing number of members that are in favour of a rate hike.

The minutes from September meeting showed that the decision to hold off a rate hike was a close call, indicating that the chances of a December hike have increased.

 

US Import Prices MoM

Prices for U.S. imports increased 0.1% in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics reported,  following a 0.2% decline the previous month.

 

US 10-Y Bond Auction

October’s bond auction resulted in a higher average yield at 1.79% compared to 1.70% in September. However, the popularity was muted with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.5, only slightly higher than previous month.

 

Canadian NHPI MoM

The New Housing Price Index (NHPI) rose 0.2% in August compared with July.

While prices were up in eight census metropolitan areas, the increase was largely attributed to new housing prices in the combined region of Toronto and Oshawa.

The NHPI increased 2.7% over the 12-month period ending in August.

 

UK RICS House Price Balance

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said the level of new buyer enquiries rose for the first time in seven months during September.

The vote for Brexit put off home buyers from the market, but they are slowly coming back, according to RICS.

 

German Final CPI MoM

The German consumer price index rose just slightly by 0.1% in September 2016. Thus confirming the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) preliminary results of 29 September 2016.

 

Japanese Bank Lending YoY

The total value of outstanding bank loans to consumers and businesses increased 2.2% in September compared to the same month last year.

A leading indicator that the Japanese economy is confident about the future as they are comfortable with borrowing money.

 

Japanese Tertiary Industry Activity MoM

No change in the value of purchases  of services from businesses in September compared to August.

This leading indicator signals that Japanese companies are hesitant to spend on services as they might foresee less economic activity in the near future.

 

Chinese US Denominated Trade Balance

Despite the fact that China’s trade balance is still positive, September came in much worse than expected.

Exports are down 10% YoY while imports only declined 1.9%.

 

Australian MI Inflation Expectations

The expected inflation rate reported by the Melbourne Institute rose by 0.4 percentage points to 3.7% in October from 3.3% in September.

 

New Zealand FPI MoM

Food prices fell 0.9 % in September compared to last month.

This drop was mainly influenced by seasonally lower prices for vegetables and cheaper chicken prices.

 

New Zealand Business NZ Manufacturing Index

Manufacturers in New Zealand remain positive about future business conditions as the index increased a further 2.5 points to 57.7 compared to last month.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion and the index has remained above this number since October 2012.

 

US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment

Analysts are expecting an improvement in consumer sentiment, backed by the rise in job openings and decrease in unemployment benefit claims.

 

US Core Retail Sales MoM

After two months of decreasing retail sales analysts are expecting it to pick up again.

Keep in mind that analysts have been on the wrong side of their predictions  for August and September so don’t be surprised if we another decline again for October.

 

Time Data Title Currency Previous Forecast
8:30 Chinese CPI YoY CNY 1.3% 1.6%
19:30 US Retail Sales MoM USD -0.3% 0.6%
US Core PPI MoM USD 0.1% 0.1%
US PPI MoM USD 0.0% 0.2%
21:00 US FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks USD
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